Post-earthquake recovery in coastal cities of Manabí, Ecuador: A regional assessment nine years after the 2016 Muisne earthquake

In April 2016, a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck near Muisne (Pedernales), Ecuador, causing 671 fatalities, displacing >30,000 people, and generating approximately USD 3.6 billion in economic losses that severely impacted the coastal province of Manabí. Nine years later, the recovery trajectory of its principal urban centers—Pedernales, Manta, Portoviejo, and Chone—offers a critical perspective to assess adaptive resilience in earthquake-prone coastal cities of Latin America. This study conducts a regional assessment of post-earthquake recovery using the 4Rs resilience framework—robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity—applied across housing, health, education, infrastructure, and economic sectors. Official reports, statistical databases, and field validations collected between 2016 and 2025 provide the basis for documenting both progress and persistent challenges. The findings indicate that robustness improved with the enforcement of the Ecuadorian seismic code NEC-15 and the adoption of advanced technologies such as base isolation and supplemental damping in hospitals and high-rise buildings. Redundancy expanded selectively, being stronger in healthcare yet limited in housing and utilities. Resourcefulness varied across cities: municipal leadership and civic oversight in Manta and Portoviejo facilitated adaptive recovery, whereas Pedernales and Chone remained dependent on central agencies. Rapidity was similarly uneven; lifeline services were restored promptly, but complex projects—including hospitals, sewer systems, and residential complexes—faced delays of five to nine years. Structural assessments of 97 buildings revealed that nearly half remain without reinforcement, with recurrent deficiencies such as soft-story mechanisms, brittle masonry infill, and reinforcement corrosion sustaining latent seismic risk. Governance fragmentation, equity gaps, and insufficient monitoring thus emerged as critical barriers, underscoring the need for integrated governance, community participation, and AI-enabled monitoring to strengthen long-term disaster recovery in coastal cities.