Navigating Danger in Valparaíso, Chile: Built Environment Elements and Their Effect on Transport Safety

This study analyzes the relationship between the built environment and area-level traffic crash frequency in the intermediate city of Valparaíso, Chile, testing the transferability of Global North frameworks (such as the ‘5Ds’) to a context characterized by complex topography, socio-spatial inequalities, and heritage significance. Using Bayesian Poisson regression models with Spatial CAR effects, six types of traffic accidents (pedestrian and vehicular) were evaluated in the years 2015, 2019, and 2023. The results show that land-use diversity consistently acts as a protective factor, validating universal principles, while school density emerges as a structural hotspot for pedestrian conflicts. In vehicle accidents, higher road connectivity and proximity to low-capacity transport hubs are associated with higher accident counts, challenging theories that associate grid connectivity solely with safety. These trends are maintained over time and intensified in 2023, reflecting the post-pandemic recovery of urban activity. The findings provide a unique perspective for intermediate-sized Latin American cities, suggesting that public policies should combine universal traffic calming with targeted actions in school environments and critical corridors where exposure is concentrated.