The introduction of dynamic spectrum access (DSA) technologies in mobile markets faces technical, economic and regulatory challenges. This paper defines industry openness and spectrum centralization as the two key factors that affect the adoption of DSA technologies. The adoption process is analyzed employing a comprehensive System Dynamics model that considers the network and substitution effects. Two possible scenarios, namely operator-centric and user-centric adoption of DSA technologies are explored in the model. The analysis indicates that operator-centric DSA technologies may be adopted in most countries where spectrum is centralized, while end-user centric DSA technologies may be adopted in countries with decentralized spectrum regime and in niche emerging services. The study highlights the role of standards-based design and concludes by citing case studies that show the practicality of this analysis and associated policy prescriptions.
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