A eleição de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes: evidências empíricas do programa Bolsa Família

Ana Elisa Pereira; Claudio Shikida; Felipe Ribeiro; Luciano Nakabashi

doi:10.22456/2176-5456.40076

A eleição de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes: evidências empíricas do programa Bolsa Família

Ana Elisa Pereira^*, Claudio Shikida^*, Felipe Ribeiro^*, Luciano Nakabashi^*

^*Autor correspondiente de este trabajo

Producción científica: Contribución a una revista › Artículo › revisión exhaustiva

Resumen

O presente artigo apresenta evidências empíricas de que o Programa Bolsa Família teve um papel preponderante na eleição da candidata do Partido dos Trabalhadores, Dilma Rousseff, em 2010, e que esse efeito foi superior ao do desempenho econômico favorável nos dois mandatos do governo Lula. Utilizando dados agregados por município, os resultados, sob o modelo de regressão beta, mostram que esse cenário se mantém mesmo quando se leva em conta outras variáveis de cunho econômico, social e político e as especificidades regionais não observáveis. As estimativas obtidas apontam também para uma votação mais expressiva em Dilma nos municípios com menor nível de escolaridade, dando suporte à hipótese presente na literatura de que essas populações tendem a ser mais dependentes do Estado e, portanto, a primar pela manutenção do poder vigente. Os resultados obtidos são robustos a diferentes especificações.

Título traducido de la contribución	The 2010 Dilma 's Election and Its Determinants: empirical Evidence of the Bolsa Família Program
Idioma original	Portugués
Páginas (desde-hasta)	111-142
Número de páginas	32
Publicación	Análise Econômica
Volumen	33
N.º	64
DOI	https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.40076
Estado	Publicada - 1 sep. 2015
Publicado de forma externa	Sí

Acceder al documento

10.22456/2176-5456.40076

Otros archivos y enlaces

http://dx.doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.40076

Citar esto

@article{94ce46aa10874c3e86b4896fe4a32fbc,

title = "A elei{\c c}{\~a}o de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes: evid{\^e}ncias emp{\'i}ricas do programa Bolsa Fam{\'i}lia",

abstract = "This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Fam{\'i}lia cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers{\textquoteright} Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula{\textquoteright}s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained.",

keywords = "Presidential election, Bolsa fam{\'i}lia, Beta regression",

author = "Pereira, {Ana Elisa} and Claudio Shikida and Felipe Ribeiro and Luciano Nakabashi",

year = "2015",

month = sep,

day = "1",

doi = "10.22456/2176-5456.40076",

language = "Portuguese",

volume = "33",

pages = "111--142",

journal = "An{\'a}lise Econ{\^o}mica",

issn = "2176-5456",

number = "64",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A eleição de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes

T2 - evidências empíricas do programa Bolsa Família

AU - Pereira, Ana Elisa

AU - Shikida, Claudio

AU - Ribeiro, Felipe

AU - Nakabashi, Luciano

PY - 2015/9/1

Y1 - 2015/9/1

N2 - This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained.

AB - This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained.

KW - Presidential election

KW - Bolsa família

KW - Beta regression

UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.40076

U2 - 10.22456/2176-5456.40076

DO - 10.22456/2176-5456.40076

M3 - Article

SN - 2176-5456

VL - 33

SP - 111

EP - 142

JO - Análise Econômica

JF - Análise Econômica

IS - 64

ER -

A eleição de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes: evidências empíricas do programa Bolsa Família

Resumen

Acceder al documento

Otros archivos y enlaces

Huella

Citar esto