TY - JOUR
T1 - A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries
AU - MCC Collaborative Research Network
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Meakin, Sophie
AU - O’Reilly, Kathleen
AU - von Borries, Rosa
AU - Schneider, Rochelle
AU - Royé, Dominic
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Pascal, Mathilde
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
AU - Hu, Wenbiao
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Correa, Patricia Matus
AU - Meng, Xia
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Kynčl, Jan
AU - Urban, Aleš
AU - Orru, Hans
AU - Ryti, Niilo R.I.
AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.
AU - Cauchemez, Simon
AU - Dallavalle, Marco
AU - Schneider, Alexandra
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Ng, Chris Fook Sheng
AU - Alahmad, Barrak
AU - Rao, Shilpa
AU - Di Ruscio, Francesco
AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - Holobâcă, Iulian Horia
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Lee, Whanhee
AU - Íñiguez, Carmen
AU - Ragettli, Martina S.
AU - Aleman, Alicia
AU - Colistro, Valentina
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Schwartz, Joel
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Scovronick, Noah
AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado
AU - Zhang, Yuzhou
AU - Russell, Timothy W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12/1
Y1 - 2021/12/1
N2 - There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.
AB - There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85117746442
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8
DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 34645794
AN - SCOPUS:85117746442
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 12
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 5968
ER -