The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest

Paulina Caroca Soto, Carlos Cartes, Toby P. Davies, Jocelyn Olivari*, Sergio Rica, Katia Vogt-Geisse

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations


We analyze the 2019 Chilean social unrest episode, consisting of a sequence of events, through the lens of an epidemic-like model that considers global contagious dynamics. We adjust the parameters to the Chilean social unrest aggregated public data available from the Undersecretary of Human Rights and observe that the number of violent events follows a well-defined pattern already observed in various public disorder episodes in other countries since the 1960s. Although the epidemic-like models display a single event that reaches a peak followed by an exponential decay, we add standard perturbation schemes that may produce a rich temporal behavior as observed in the 2019 Chilean social turmoil. Although we only have access to aggregated data, we are still able to fit it to our model quite well, providing interesting insights on social unrest dynamics.

Original languageEnglish
Article number6307
Issue number7
StatePublished - 1 Jul 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
thank the Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez) for the research fund provided to carry out this research, and C.C. wishes to acknowledge the support of Fondecyt-Chile (Project No. 1200357) and the Universidad de los Andes (FAI)-CL through FAI initiatives.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Author(s).


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