Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

Daewon Yang; Masahiro Hashizume; Aurelio Tobías; Yasushi Honda; Dominic Roye; Jaemin Oh; Tran Ngoc Dang; Yoonhee Kim; Rosana Abrutzky; Yuming Guo; Shilu Tong; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Eric Lavigne; Patricia Matus Correa; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Samuel Osorio; Jan Kyselý; Aleš Urban; Hans Orru; Ene Indermitte; Jouni Jaakkola; Niilo Ryti; Mathilde Pascal; Veronika Huber; Alexandra Schneider; Klea Katsouyanni; Antonis Analitis; Alireza Entezari; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Patrick Goodman; Ariana Zeka; Paola Michelozzi; Francesca de’Donato; Barrak Alahmad; Magali Hurtado Diaz; César De la Cruz Valencia; Ala Overcenco; Danny Houthuijs; Caroline Ameling; Shilpa Rao; Baltazar Nunes; Joana Madureira; Iulian Horia Holo-Bâc; Noah Scovronick; Fiorella Acquaotta; Ho Kim; Whanhee Lee; Carmen Íñiguez; Bertil Forsberg; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Martina S. Ragettli; Yue Liang Leon Guo; Shih Chun Pan; Shanshan Li; Francesco Sera; Antonella Zanobetti; Joel Schwartz; Ben Armstrong; Antonio Gasparrini; Yeonseung Chung

doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

Daewon Yang, Masahiro Hashizume, Aurelio Tobías, Yasushi Honda, Dominic Roye, Jaemin Oh, Tran Ngoc Dang, Yoonhee Kim, Rosana Abrutzky, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans OrruEne Indermitte, Jouni Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de’Donato, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Baltazar Nunes, Joana Madureira, Iulian Horia Holo-Bâc, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Yeonseung Chung^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.

Original language	English
Article number	e334
Pages (from-to)	e334
Journal	Environmental Epidemiology
Volume	8
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334
State	Published - 30 Sep 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

Keywords

Climate change
Heterogeneity
Human adaptation
Minimum mortality temperature
Temporal change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

Cite this

Yang, D., Hashizume, M., Tobías, A., Honda, Y., Roye, D., Oh, J., Dang, T. N., Kim, Y., Abrutzky, R., Guo, Y., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., ... Chung, Y. (2024). Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015. Environmental Epidemiology, 8(5), e334. Article e334. https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

@article{e4e51f95dad445fea871b1d20d11d6bc,

title = "Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015",

abstract = "Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.",

keywords = "Climate change, Heterogeneity, Human adaptation, Minimum mortality temperature, Temporal change",

author = "Daewon Yang and Masahiro Hashizume and Aurelio Tob{\'i}as and Yasushi Honda and Dominic Roye and Jaemin Oh and Dang, \{Tran Ngoc\} and Yoonhee Kim and Rosana Abrutzky and Yuming Guo and Shilu Tong and Coelho, \{Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio\} and Saldiva, \{Paulo Hilario Nascimento\} and Eric Lavigne and Correa, \{Patricia Matus\} and Ortega, \{Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s\} and Samuel Osorio and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Ale{\v s} Urban and Hans Orru and Ene Indermitte and Jouni Jaakkola and Niilo Ryti and Mathilde Pascal and Veronika Huber and Alexandra Schneider and Klea Katsouyanni and Antonis Analitis and Alireza Entezari and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Patrick Goodman and Ariana Zeka and Paola Michelozzi and Francesca de{\textquoteright}Donato and Barrak Alahmad and Diaz, \{Magali Hurtado\} and Valencia, \{C{\'e}sar De la Cruz\} and Ala Overcenco and Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling and Shilpa Rao and Baltazar Nunes and Joana Madureira and Holo-B{\^a}c, \{Iulian Horia\} and Noah Scovronick and Fiorella Acquaotta and Ho Kim and Whanhee Lee and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Bertil Forsberg and Vicedo-Cabrera, \{Ana Maria\} and Ragettli, \{Martina S.\} and Guo, \{Yue Liang Leon\} and Pan, \{Shih Chun\} and Shanshan Li and Francesco Sera and Antonella Zanobetti and Joel Schwartz and Ben Armstrong and Antonio Gasparrini and Yeonseung Chung",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.",

year = "2024",

month = sep,

day = "30",

doi = "10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

pages = "e334",

journal = "Environmental Epidemiology",

issn = "2474-7882",

publisher = "Wolters Kluwer Health",

number = "5",

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Yang, D, Hashizume, M, Tobías, A, Honda, Y, Roye, D, Oh, J, Dang, TN, Kim, Y, Abrutzky, R, Guo, Y, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Lavigne, E, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Osorio, S, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, J, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Huber, V, Schneider, A, Katsouyanni, K, Analitis, A, Entezari, A, Mayvaneh, F, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, de’Donato, F, Alahmad, B, Diaz, MH, Valencia, CDLC, Overcenco, A, Houthuijs, D, Ameling, C, Rao, S, Nunes, B, Madureira, J, Holo-Bâc, IH, Scovronick, N, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YLL, Pan, SC, Li, S, Sera, F, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Armstrong, B, Gasparrini, A & Chung, Y 2024, 'Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015', Environmental Epidemiology, vol. 8, no. 5, e334, pp. e334. https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

AU - Yang, Daewon

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Tobías, Aurelio

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Roye, Dominic

AU - Oh, Jaemin

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Kim, Yoonhee

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - de’Donato, Francesca

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado

AU - Valencia, César De la Cruz

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Chung, Yeonseung

PY - 2024/9/30

Y1 - 2024/9/30

N2 - Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.

AB - Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.

KW - Climate change

KW - Heterogeneity

KW - Human adaptation

KW - Minimum mortality temperature

KW - Temporal change

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85206503397&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

DO - 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85206503397

SN - 2474-7882

VL - 8

SP - e334

JO - Environmental Epidemiology

JF - Environmental Epidemiology

IS - 5

M1 - e334

ER -

Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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