Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change

Maria Jose Martinez-Harms*, Brett A. Bryan, Eugenio Figueroa, Patricio Pliscoff, Rebecca K. Runting, Kerrie A. Wilson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

67 Scopus citations


Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries. Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region, the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85%) and wine production (by 52%) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage and wine production had declined by 90% and scenic beauty by 28% when the reaction to changed fire regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)56-68
Number of pages13
JournalEcosystem Services
StatePublished - 1 Jun 2017
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier B.V.


  • Carbon storage
  • Climate change
  • Fire
  • Scenic beauty
  • Urbanization
  • Wine production


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