Puntaje predictivo de emergencias médicas en un servicio médico quirúrgico, usando variables clínicas y los diagnósticos de ingreso

Translated title of the contribution: A score to predict medical emergencies in hospitalized patients

Claudia Cofré, Gabriel Cavada, César Maquilón, Paula Daza*, Ángel Vargas, Antonio Vukusich

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Background: The medical alert system (MAS) was created for the timely handling of clinical decompensations, experienced by patients hospitalized at the Medical Surgical Service (MSS) in a private clinic. It is activated by the nurse when hemodynamic, respiratory, neurological, infectious or metabolic alterations appear, when a patient falls or complains of pain. A physician assesses the patient and decides further therapy. Aim: To analyze the clinical and demographic characteristics of patients who activated or not the MAS and develop a score to identify patients who will potentially activate MAS. Material and Methods: Data from 13,933 patients discharged from the clinic in a period of one year was analyzed. Results: MAS was activated by 472 patients (3.4%). Twenty two of these patients died during hospital stay compared to 68 patients who did not activate the alert (0.5%, p < 0.01). The predictive score developed considered age, diagnosis (based on the tenth international classification of diseases) and whether the patient was medical or surgical. The score ranges from 0 to 9 and a cutoff ≥ 6 provides a sensitivity and specificity of 37 and 81% respectively and a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 1.9 to predict the activation of MAS. The same cutoff value predicts death with a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and a negative predictive value of 99.8%. Conclusions: This score may be useful to identify hospitalized patients who may have complications during their hospital stay.

Translated title of the contributionA score to predict medical emergencies in hospitalized patients
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)156-163
Number of pages8
JournalRevista Medica de Chile
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Rev Med Chile. All right reserved.


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