Mathematical modeling of the Chilean riots of 2019: An epidemiological non-local approach

Carlos Cartes*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


During the second half of October 2019, Chile, especially the capital city, Santiago, suffered from widespread violence and public and private infrastructure destruction. This work aims to expand an epidemiological non-local model that successfully described the French riots of 2005 to incorporate the topology of Santiago's subway network and explain the reported distribution of rioting activity in the city. Although the model reproduced the disorders' aggregated temporal evolution, it could not deliver results resembling the observed spatial distribution of activity on Santiago. The main reason for this failure can be attributed to the fact that the model lacks a population displacement mechanism, which seems vital to explain Santiago's unrest episodes.

Original languageEnglish
Article number123113
Issue number12
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The author wishes to acknowledge the support of FONDECYT (CL) (Project No. 1200357) and the Universidad de los Andes (CL) through FAI initiatives.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Author(s).


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