Does what happens on-chain stays on-chain? The dynamics of blockchain token transactions and prices

Cryptoassets, particularly tokens, have garnered investor interest due to high returns, yet comprehensive studies examining on-chain transaction data to assess their intrinsic value remain limited. This study addresses this gap by introducing new on-chain transaction-based measures of token usage, crypto-exchange supply pressures, and aggregate transaction intention (trading versus usage/holding). Using over 180 million records of Ethereum-based-tokens’ transaction data, we categorize on-chain transactions as peer-to-peer usage or crypto-exchange-related. Our findings show that while increased token usage intensity, whether through peer-to-peer or exchange transactions, positively correlates with higher token returns, imbalances in exchange flows have the opposite effect. Specifically, increased token inflows to exchanges signal potential supply pressure and increased token deposits signal aggregate intention to trade, both contributing to price declines. This research underscores on-chain data as a reliable economic signal and its impact on token valuations.