A eleição de Dilma em 2010 e seus determinantes: evidências empíricas do programa Bolsa Família

This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained.